First-time jobless claims in Carroll County fell by 4.2 percent to 790 in November, down from 825 in October, according to the Georgia Department of Labor.

Initial claims for jobless benefits are still 73 above the 717 reported in November 2008, a 10.2 percent yearly increase.

Carroll County’s modest labor gains have come from the transportation and utilities sector, according to Mark Watson, a labor market analyst for the Georgia Department of Labor.

“Initial unemployment insurance claims filed in Carroll County declined by 35 over the month,” said Watson. “The decline in claims came in the employment sector called transportation, warehousing and utilities.”

Watson says Carroll County’s continued job losses over the last year have been concentrated in retail trade.

Dr. William “Joey” Smith, an economist at the University of West Georgia in Carrollton, believes these numbers indicate that Carroll and the surrounding counties may have reached peak unemployment back in October. But any improvement could be slow.

“This actually indicates that Carroll County and a couple other counties in this area, what it looks like is that some of our counties have actually turned the corner,” said Smith. “That means we’re going to see unemployment rates start to get better around the midpoint of next year.”

Conventional wisdom dictates that employers begin to grow their payrolls again roughly six months after initial unemployment claims peak, according to Smith.

“Right now the pool [of unemployed workers] isn’t rising as fast as it was, and when we start putting people back to work, that pool of unemployed is going to start to fall,” said Smith. “It’s going to take a couple of years for us to work through the labor that is currently unemployed, but the thing we can say is that the pool isn’t rising as fast as it once was.”

Daniel Jackson, president of the Carroll County Chamber of Commerce, feels positive about the decline in unemployment claims.

“Several of the industrial sectors, they’ve either added jobs or they’re talking about future business they expect to do,” said Jackson. “Several have invested in new equipment as well – that doesn’t mean new jobs, it could be the reverse, but several have added jobs.”

Jackson said that the industrial sector may be the first to come out of the recession in Carroll County.

“The impact [of the recession] may have hit manufacturers a little sooner,” said Jackson. “These guys learned they have to be flexible and nimble, and they made the hard decisions to get to where they need to be to continue to do business.”

He believes any improvement in one part of the economy can exert a positive influence on other areas.

“As any sector begins to get better, maybe that will directly or indirectly affect some others,” said Jackson.

Although historically the West Georgia region has lagged behind the rest of the nation, healthy retail sales during the Christmas season could be the key to turning an economic corner, according to Jackson.

Smith seems to agree.

“It looks like in terms of initial unemployment claims as a leading indicator, they’ve reached the point where they’re at the highest they’re going to be,” said Smith.